Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Predictions

Since I'm getting destroyed in football picks, I hope to redeem myself in countering Elon. I think McConnell wins in Kentucky and Franken wins in Minnesota. The Franken/Coleman race is very close. Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were in Minnesota yesterday campaigning in that race (at one time Clinton/Giuliani was the probable presidential match-up, whew).

Obama's ground campaign shouldn't be underestimated, I've had at least 5 people (including 2 older gentlemen) knock on my door, canvassing for Obama (granted I live in a liberal city, but there weren't any knocks four years ago). It seemed inevitable that the race would tighten nationally in the last days, but it hasn't too much, if at all. I think Obama wins with at least a 7% national advantage and that translates to a significant electoral victory including all Kerry states (McCain has made a late play for Pennsylvania) plus Iowa and New Mexico (went for Gore in 2000) and Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Polling in the last four has been very close, Real Clear Politics shows McCain with very slight leads in NC, Missouri and Indiana. You can make your own map on Real Clear Politics, here's mine. My electoral total is Obama 375 McCain 163. But then I'm horrible at football picks.