Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Betting Against Buffett?

You can bet against the Oracle of Omaha on Long Bets, an immensely enjoyable website where you can register and vote on (or make) a variety of provocative predictions and bets. Now on the front page, from predictor Warren Buffett "Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses." The challenger is hedge fund Protege Partners, LLC, the bet is $1,000,000 (I'll go with Buffett).

Some bets are resolved (Red Sox won the World Series), others will need some time (a 150-year-old person by 2150 - I say yes). The money is generally of little consequence (especially for whether the LHC will destroy the earth), it's an interesting experiment in how well we understand the present world and how we largely misunderstand the future.

(image credit: businesspundit.com)