Tuesday, September 23, 2008


Politics, perhaps correctly, has become a pejorative. The mainstream media insists on the game of politics, cable news is fascinated with tactics, simplistic narratives and polls to the exclusion of a real political discussion, even in a time of peril. Of course, by adopting narratives, the media becomes a significant part of the story. Absent undeniably big events (like the financial meltdown) we have a self-perpetuating cycle of nonsense that passes for political discourse.

Having said that, if you're looking for a reasonable, pragmatic analysis of the campaign, FiveThirtyEight.com is a great place to go (538 is the number of electors in the electoral college). Nate Silver, whose background is in statistics at Baseball Prospectus (also a good site), renders comprehensive polling. He is an open Obama supporter but his polling and analysis is honest and his observations have often been correct. His polling metric now shows Obama with a considerable lead (primarily on the economic news) after having McCain ahead since the Palin pick and the convention.